What are Pot Odds In Texas Holdem Poker?
A player’s pot odds refers to the ratio between how much they can win and how much they must invest when they are facing a bet. So in a no-limit game, if player A were to bet $100 into a $100 pot, then player B would be facing pot odds of 200:100 which should be simplified to 2:1. Alternatively, a bet of $50 into a $100 pot would offer odds of 3:1, and a bet of $200 into a $100 pot would provide pot odds to the caller of only 1.5:1. In order to calculate your pot odds, you simply put the bet and the size of the pot on the left side of the colon, and you put the bet on the right side, ie pot + bet : bet.
In Texas Hold'em, poker odds are THE probability tool you need as a poker player. In fact, you should always be thinking about poker odds - yours and your opponents' - when making decisions. In short, poker odds is the probability of you winning that hand, or the price it offers (pot odds).
- Poker Math & Probabilities (Texas Hold'em) The following tables provide various probabilities and odds for many of the common events in a game of Texas hold 'em. Odds% Example Win% 330-to-1 0.30% JJ v 77 80% v 20% 220-to-1 0.45% 55 v AQ 55% v 45% 110-to-1 0.90% 55 v AQs 50% v 50% 82-to-1 1.21% JJ v 75 85% v 15% 82-to-1 1.21% JJ v 75s 80% v 20%.
- This means that if you got $10 of free credit, you’ll have to play for example 1000 spins at $1 each to roll it over. Note that not all games are allowed to be played with the bonus credit, and Tabla Probabilidades Texas Holdem not all games contribute at the same rate to roll over requirements.
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Are Pot Odds Important And How Do They Work?
Pot odds are very important, especially when it comes to calculating whether or not you should call on a draw. In order to determine whether or not it is profitable to draw, you simply compare your pot odds with the ratio of non-outs to outs. So for example, imagine that you have Qh2h on an AhKh4s flop. There is $60 in the pot, and your opponent bets $20. Should you call? Here it is easy to calculate your outs. There are nine hearts left in the pack. We know five cards (our two hole cards and the three community cards on the flop), so there are forty seven unknown cards. Of these, thirty-eight do not give us a flush and nine do (38:9). This can be simplified to 4.3:1 against improving on the turn. Our pot odds are 80:20 or 4:1. So here our pot odds do not quite justify a call, but because we are drawing to the nuts and the difference is quite modest we can rely on our implied odds to make up the difference.
Implied Odds In Texas Holdem Poker.
Implied odds refer to the fact that there are still bets to come. Looking back to our flush draw example, after calling the $20 on the flop there is still a turn and river to play. We could potentially make our flush on the turn, bet $70, get called, and then get called again for a large bet on the river. Or our opponent might simply fold once the flush comes in. Predicting the future is always a tricky thing to do, and that is part of the joy of playing poker.
Here Is A Great Example Of Texas Holdem Poker Hand Odds .
The first three players fold, and then mid-position (MP)+1 raises to $7 in a $1/$2 game. You flat on the button with 6s5s, and the big blind comes along as well. There is $22 in the pot. The flop then comes down as As2s7h. MP bets $20 and the action is on you. You are getting ever-so slightly better than 2:1, and like 9 cards on the turn, so your odds of improving are again 4.3:1 against. Here there is a very large disparity between your pot odds and your implied odds. The situation is also significantly worse in two additional ways. Firstly, and most importantly, you are drawing to a six high flush that is not at all the nuts. Secondly, you are not closing the action. The problem with drawing to a six high flush (especially in a multiway or mass multiway pot) is that it is very easy for someone else to have a better hand. In poker, you want to be very cautious about drawing to non-nut holdings (see poker winning hands for the nuts). And the problem with not closing the action is that the player in the big blind could still raise, which means your effective pot odds are reduced. Because of all these factors (we aren’t getting the right price, we might be drawing dead, and there is still another player left to act who could raise causing us to forfeit our call) the best play is to simply fold. In fact, we probably shouldn’t have called to see the flop in the first place, simply because our cards are too low.
How Important Are Your Texas Holdem Poker Hand Pot Odds?
Your pot odds inform many of your decisions in Texas Hold’em poker. Of course, but there are other factors as well. It is crucial to study your opponents and observe their tendencies to better appreciate the quality of their bets. But from a mathematical point of view, there are few things as fundamental as the concept of pot odds. For example, consider the idea of defending your big blind vs a 3.5x open and a min-raise. In example A, the button opens for $7 in a $1/$2 game, and the SB folds. In example B, the button opens for $4 in a $1/$2 game. Assuming that the button is opening at the same frequency in both examples, then we should defend much more liberally in example B, where we are getting 3.5:1, than in example A, where we are getting 2:1. Basically, because the pot odds are greater, we have less risk and more reward, so calling becomes more profitable. Essentially we only have to win the pot 22% of the time instead of 33%. And with higher pot odds and less invested to see the flop, our implied odds increase as well. Of course, we do face a positional disadvantage, which should temper our enthusiasm somewhat, but that can be mollified with accurate play after the flop.
When Should You Call Based On Texas Holdem Poker Hand Odds?
Another example where pot odds matter is in determining whether you should call or not on the river. The greater the pot odds the more liberally you should call. If there is $200 in the pot and your opponent bets $30, then you would be getting great odds and should likely call with any pair, or maybe even ace high. You only have to be right 1 in 7 times to show a profit. On the other hand against a larger bet, you should generally be a bit more cautious, unless you think that they are bluffing. Against a player who does not bluff (or bluffs at a low frequency), you would want to have a pretty strong hand to call a large river bet, one that would beat some or many of the hands that he is value betting.
Conclusion.
To progress in Texas Holdem Poker and make money in the long run you must understand pot odds and implied odds in order to understand when to call a bet. You need to take into account the size of the pot and the chips you need to throw in to make the call, against the cards in your hand and the chances of winning. If you don’t know the chances of winning, based on pot odds, you will never know if you should be calling or not. And its not just about the hand you are in right now, or even todays game, but it is based on the results of all the games you play over a season, a year, a career. If you want to come out ahead in the long run, you have to know the pot odds for the hands you are in. Sure, you can make a hero call now without the odds in your favor, and you might win today, but if you keep doing that over a multiple games, you will lose in the long run.
So sit down tonight at the poker table, take some time to consider the pot odds for each hand when you are on a draw, and fold or call appropriately. Good luck and see you on final table!!
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The main underpinning of poker is math – it is essential. For every decision you make, while factors such as psychology have a part to play, math is the key element.
In this lesson we’re going to give an overview of probability and how it relates to poker. This will include the probability of being dealt certain hands and how often they’re likely to win. We’ll also cover how to calculating your odds and outs, in addition to introducing you to the concept of pot odds. And finally we’ll take a look at how an understanding of the math will help you to remain emotional stable at the poker table and why you should focus on decisions, not results.
What is Probability?
Probabilidades Poker Texas Holdem Calculator
Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood that one outcome or another will occur. For instance, a coin flip has two possible outcomes: heads or tails. The probability that a flipped coin will land heads is 50% (one outcome out of the two); the same goes for tails.
Probability and Cards
When dealing with a deck of cards the number of possible outcomes is clearly much greater than the coin example. Each poker deck has fifty-two cards, each designated by one of four suits (clubs, diamonds, hearts and spades) and one of thirteen ranks (the numbers two through ten, Jack, Queen, King, and Ace). Therefore, the odds of getting any Ace as your first card are 1 in 13 (7.7%), while the odds of getting any spade as your first card are 1 in 4 (25%).
Unlike coins, cards are said to have “memory”: every card dealt changes the makeup of the deck. For example, if you receive an Ace as your first card, only three other Aces are left among the remaining fifty-one cards. Therefore, the odds of receiving another Ace are 3 in 51 (5.9%), much less than the odds were before you received the first Ace.
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Pre-flop Probabilities: Pocket Pairs
In order to find the odds of getting dealt a pair of Aces, we multiply the probabilities of receiving each card:
(4/52) x (3/51) = (12/2652) = (1/221) ≈ 0.45%.
To put this in perspective, if you’re playing poker at your local casino and are dealt 30 hands per hour, you can expect to receive pocket Aces an average of once every 7.5 hours.
The odds of receiving any of the thirteen possible pocket pairs (twos up to Aces) is:
(13/221) = (1/17) ≈ 5.9%.
In contrast, you can expect to receive any pocket pair once every 35 minutes on average.
Pre-Flop Probabilities: Hand vs. Hand
Players don’t play poker in a vacuum; each player’s hand must measure up against his opponent’s, especially if a player goes all-in before the flop.
Here are some sample probabilities for most pre-flop situations:
Post-Flop Probabilities: Improving Your Hand
Now let’s look at the chances of certain events occurring when playing certain starting hands. The following table lists some interesting and valuable hold’em math:
Many beginners to poker overvalue certain starting hands, such as suited cards. As you can see, suited cards don’t make flushes very often. Likewise, pairs only make a set on the flop 12% of the time, which is why small pairs are not always profitable.
PDF Chart
We have created a poker math and probability PDF chart (link opens in a new window) which lists a variety of probabilities and odds for many of the common events in Texas hold ‘em. This chart includes the two tables above in addition to various starting hand probabilities and common pre-flop match-ups. You’ll need to have Adobe Acrobat installed to be able to view the chart, but this is freely installed on most computers by default. We recommend you print the chart and use it as a source of reference.
Odds and Outs
If you do see a flop, you will also need to know what the odds are of either you or your opponent improving a hand. In poker terminology, an “out” is any card that will improve a player’s hand after the flop.
One common occurrence is when a player holds two suited cards and two cards of the same suit appear on the flop. The player has four cards to a flush and needs one of the remaining nine cards of that suit to complete the hand. In the case of a “four-flush”, the player has nine “outs” to make his flush.
A useful shortcut to calculating the odds of completing a hand from a number of outs is the “rule of four and two”. The player counts the number of cards that will improve his hand, and then multiplies that number by four to calculate his probability of catching that card on either the turn or the river. If the player misses his draw on the turn, he multiplies his outs by two to find his probability of filling his hand on the river.
In the example of the four-flush, the player’s probability of filling the flush is approximately 36% after the flop (9 outs x 4) and 18% after the turn (9 outs x 2).
Pot Odds
Another important concept in calculating odds and probabilities is pot odds. Pot odds are the proportion of the next bet in relation to the size of the pot.
For instance, if the pot is $90 and the player must call a $10 bet to continue playing the hand, he is getting 9 to 1 (90 to 10) pot odds. If he calls, the new pot is now $100 and his $10 call makes up 10% of the new pot.
Experienced players compare the pot odds to the odds of improving their hand. If the pot odds are higher than the odds of improving the hand, the expert player will call the bet; if not, the player will fold. This calculation ties into the concept of expected value, which we will explore in a later lesson.
Bad Beats
A “bad beat” happens when a player completes a hand that started out with a very low probability of success. Experts in probability understand the idea that, just because an event is highly unlikely, the low likelihood does not make it completely impossible.
A measure of a player’s experience and maturity is how he handles bad beats. In fact, many experienced poker players subscribe to the idea that bad beats are the reason that many inferior players stay in the game. Bad poker players often mistake their good fortune for skill and continue to make the same mistakes, which the more capable players use against them.
Decisions, Not Results
One of the most important reasons that novice players should understand how probability functions at the poker table is so that they can make the best decisions during a hand. While fluctuations in probability (luck) will happen from hand to hand, the best poker players understand that skill, discipline and patience are the keys to success at the tables.
A big part of strong decision making is understanding how often you should be betting, raising, and applying pressure.
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Conclusion
A strong knowledge of poker math and probabilities will help you adjust your strategies and tactics during the game, as well as giving you reasonable expectations of potential outcomes and the emotional stability to keep playing intelligent, aggressive poker.
Remember that the foundation upon which to build an imposing knowledge of hold’em starts and ends with the math. I’ll end this lesson by simply saying…. the math is essential.
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By Gerald Hanks
Gerald Hanks is from Houston Texas, and has been playing poker since 2002. He has played cash games and no-limit hold’em tournaments at live venues all over the United States.
